Auto Market Predictions

Cox Automotive Forecasts 15M U.S. New Car Sales in 2023

A mid-year review by Cox Automotive sets an optimistic tone for the U.S. auto industry in 2023, predicting an 8% rise in new vehicle sales.
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The U.S. auto industry appears to be on an impressive upward trajectory, according to recent projections by Cox Automotive. Its mid-year review reveals a remarkable surge in new vehicle sales, with an expected total of 15 million new car sales in 2023, an 8% increase compared to 2022.

The overall sales volume for June 2023 was expected to hit 1.33 million vehicles. This recent performance underlines the resilience of the auto industry and stands as a testament to the improved new-vehicle inventory levels that have spurred sales.  

Contrary to earlier concerns about potential impediments to growth, such as vehicle affordability, supply constraints, and economic turbulence, the U.S. auto market has outpaced expectations. “The jobs market has remained healthy, and consumers have found a way to buy new wheels,” remarked Cox Automotive’s chief economist, Jonathan Smoke. 

In terms of market share, General Motors is anticipated to lead with a solid 16.7%, representing a total of 1,274,604 vehicles sold. However, not all automakers are basking in the glow of positive sales forecasts. Toyota, Stellantis, and Daimler are forecasted to record negative year-to-date sales numbers for the first six months of 2023, with drops of 2%, 1.4%, and 4.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, E.V. manufacturers continue to make substantial gains. Rivian and Lucid posted triple-digit increases, while Mazda is expected to see a 30.2% jump in sales for the first half of 2023. E.V. sales are projected to touch nearly half a million units in the same period, indicating an upward trend for greener transportation. With an expanded range of 42 models and increased inventory at dealerships, the market share of E.V.s is close to reaching 7% of all U.S. auto sales. 

Tesla’s projected sales for the first half of 2023 underline its strength in the E.V. segment, with a forecasted increase of 26.7% year-on-year, equivalent to a 4.6% market share. Notably, Tesla led the U.S. in E.V. sales in Q1, aided by recent price cuts, thereby driving a surge in overall U.S. E.V. sales. 

The U.S. E.V. inventory has multiplied more than fourfold from 21,000 to over 90,000 units year-on-year, according to Cox estimates. As a result of the increased availability and the expanded federal E.V. tax credits, U.S. E.V. sales are forecasted to surpass 1 million units for the first time ever this year. 

As these figures indicate, 2023 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year for the U.S. auto industry, with traditional automakers and E.V. manufacturers reaping the benefits of a strong economy and healthy consumer demand. 

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